Baby Tax

Truly, I'm biased with my own baby daughter here on my lap, but this is one of those few issues I go off about - and I've been seeing a lot of discussion about it lately, especially on the Fark message boards h2odragon and I frequent.

Have you seen the movie 'Idiocracy' yet? Where the intelligent people stop breeding and thus the world is overpopulated by idiots who are slowly letting the world go to hell in a handbag? I think of that movie when I see an article like this.

On the other hand, it also almost ensures that poor people, regardless of intelligence, would not be allowed to have kids unless they can come up with the money. Some of the decent folk I know who have children, including my brother, would be ready to run if they had to choose between a 5000.00 tax and 800/yr after or aborting a pregnancy. Yes, babies are expensive but most people can find a way to make ends meet when it comes to taking care of their child. When, because of something like this, only the 'rich' can have children, what happens to society? What happens to how society views and treats children especially? It opens the door to lots of evils... like China's one child policy has done.

Human reproduction is just one of those issues that is much too difficult to put limits on without eventual corruption and misappropriation. As I saw in one of the message boards - there are times when all the poor have is their lineage, and if you tax or take away that, they are left with nothing to lose at all. In short, when you take away a people's future, especially their children, they are likely to raise up against you.

Also, having children can open some people's eyes. They suddenly begin to work for the future, for their children - and become more productive members of society. My friend in high school straightened out when she had two kids - beautiful kids and she takes care of them well even on a minimum wage job while going to school. A female relative of mine went further into the hole when she had kids, and foisted them off on others so she didn't have to stop her lifestyle... If anyone political had looked at those two situations at the beginning they would have set them equal when both of these girls had entirely different reactions about how to live their lives from that point on.

There is also talk of 'baby licenses' where each individual is sterilized in puberty, and must then prove themselves able and willing to take care of a baby before they are made fertile again. It has some logic to it, and would give free birth control to all of those who would want and/or need it. However, I'm sure you can see ways this could be used politically, to further somebody's agenda. Soon after, you have to be in a certain income bracket to have a child, and then of a certain 'optimal' age and live in a 'safe environment' etc etc... until the restrictions are so insane that the only people able to pass the test are those that slip a bribe into the right hand. Our society would crumble within a single generation, much like the movie 'Children of Men.' However, I do not think children would be looked on as favorably as in that script. There are already so many 'child-free' couples who complain about taxes providing for public education, public health etc... who would like everyone else to 'stop breeding' so they can go back to whatever else it is they're doing with their lives.

Atitude Judo

The strategic failure of a whole generation of economists, bankers, and policy-makers has been so enormous that it may now take a strong draught of socialism to save the Western democracies. We start - but may not end - with the nationalisation of Northern Rock.

--
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, widely dismissed as a raving right wing lunatic, usually because he manages to say sensible things in major newspapers.

Some of the more hyper commentors speculate about the chances of violent revolution, universal bank failures; "what will replace the Federal Reserve?" ... The more educated (appearing, I'm not necessarily fit to judge) frankly wonder at the meaning of signs and indicators they used to think important but which have now begun behaving in ways that contradict theory and gut feeling.

At least, the ones that're commenting in public and where I read. Those who think they know what the economy is doing are out there taking advantage of the volatility... the ones who are right are probably even making money.

2006-2007 Baby Boom?

I don't have all the evidence I need yet, but I've seen some articles recently that have set the ball rolling.

Evidence:
An overall view of Baby Booms at Wikipedia
Baby boom and rise in twin births in Australia in 2007
Baby boom in Australia in 1971
U.S. Teen Birth Rates up for first time in 14 years / Unmarried birth rates reach high

Does it seem like you've been seeing more babies born around you lately? In my own family there are two babies born within a month of each other. A co-worker had two miscarriages last year, and Internet friends and their siblings are all delivering babies left and right. I can count 10 family members and casual acquantances between the ages of 20 and 35 who have delivered a baby within the past 12 months, compared to maybe two or three in previous years.

The articles linked above seem to say this is the first large baby boom since the 1970s and not just in the U.S. That seems to make sense, as the people born during that time period are coming into their most fertile time of life, and also probably getting more stable with jobs, homes etc... Some of them are just saying 'Now or Never' and starting their families now, without waiting for security. With the ongoing war, economy downturning and this financial crisis ramping up, who can blame them?

Raising a family in hard times is difficult but not impossible. Family is one of those things that has staying power and reaps more genuine rewards than any other 'investment' you can make. You may lose your expensive home and new car to the bank, but your newborn baby just requires love, care and a healthy home environment to grow and thrive. I'm willing to bet more people are willing to make that family investment now that they've seen their fancy 200,000 houses and expensive cars haven't brought them happiness and aren't going to last.

However, how does this relate with the bigger picture? There are other trends affecting human fertility, beyond economic, that need to be studied. In general, we've seen a smaller increase in the animal population across our region. The harvests have been sparse, due to both early frost and drought. The cost of food, oil and services are going up, not down. People are losing their jobs, investments, retirement funds and banks are foreclosing on homes. There are less resources available and look as if there will be hard times ahead. Some say we are even heading into another depression, and this is the time to stock up on durable goods, valuable metals and to learn how to store food and emergency supplies for the future.

So why would the human population, even in a regional area, suddenly increase in the face of possible economic hardship? Quite a few people are saying the global population has been on the decrease for many years, but just as many warn we are going to overpopulate the Earth. This is why I state more research needs to be done.

But to any Joe Blow, there is an increase in babies happening here. It could be another echo from the original Baby Boom - their youngest children reaching their prime childearing years and oldest grandchildren reaching their first fertility? But I can count five of the ten babies I mentioned born unplanned to married families - which means there is more at work here than family planning.

Perhaps other cues in the environment are lending a hand in boosting human fertility? Better regulation of chemicals that once caused infertility? Some environmental factor in air, water, temperatures? A decrease in the use of birth control? In some studies birth control pills have been shown to make it harder to get pregnant after discontinuing long-term use (over 5 years).

It is true that we just had our first little girl in November of this year. Some of the above factors were true for us, and others have left us wondering about the choices of our contemporaries. Are we really starting to go through another baby boom? If harder times are ahead, will this be a good thing or a bad thing?